The 1979 AL MVP Award

Let’s play a little game. Let’s see, just by looking at a few numbers, if you can pick the player that received the most MVP votes in the election for the 1979 American League Most Valuable Player. This should be fun.

Johnny, who are our first two contestants?

Player 1 is a second baseman, and a good one at that. He was a multi-time Gold Glove winner, and though he didn’t win it in 1979, he still posted a Rate mark of 108, including 11 Fielding Runs Above Average. He had a .984 fielding percentage in a league that averaged .978 for its second basemen, and had a range factor of 5.08 compared to the league average of 4.80. Pretty good defender. On top of that, Player 1 was a pretty good stick, too. His batting numbers were .294/.365/.537/.902, including 30 homers and 101 RBI. He appeared in his fifth All-Star game and did all of this for an 88-win team. Not a bad candidate at all.

Player 2 is an outfielder/designated hitter, a teammate of Player 1. He combined for 97 games in the corner outfield positions, and wasn’t good at either of them (98 Rate, -1 FRAA as a left fielder, 95 Rate, -1 FRAA as a right fielder). Though he didn’t really contribute much of anything defensively, he did have a solid offensive year, posting a .296/.371/.530/.901 stat line, with 36 homers and a league-leading 139 RBI. He appeared in his first (and only) All-Star game, and, of course, did this for an 88-win team, just like Player 1.

Since I’m sure the only kind of people who read my stuff are basically dishonest, you probably cheated and uncovered the fact that Player 1 (Bobby Grich) was soundly outvoted by his teammate, Player 2 (Don Baylor). To be exact, the final vote tally was 347 points and 20 first-place for Baylor, and 58 points with zero first-place votes for Grich.

Seems kinda stupid, doesn’t it? Other than 38 extra RBI for Baylor, attributable almost exclusively to the fact that Baylor batted cleanup in literally every game the Angels played while Grich batted 6th or lower in 90% of his games that season, what exactly did he bring to the table that Grich did not?

In short, nothing.

Baylor was a poor defender when he played the field and he was also a mediocre hitter in the majority of his playing time. In the 65 games in which he DH’d, Baylor hit .349/.427/.663/1.090, but when he also had to play the field he hit just .261/.333/.441/.774, which wasn’t terribly different from the league average of .270/.334/.408/.742. Meanwhile, not only did Grich provide excellent defense at a key position, but he had essentially identical overall batting stats and was a better player in key situations. With runners on base, Grich hit .320/.397/.575/.972 compared to Baylor’s .302/.379/.527/.906. With runners in scoring position, Grich had an OPS of .995 compared to Baylor’s .981. Against the Royals, the team the Angels battled for the AL West title all year, Baylor hit just .196/.236/.490/.726, while Grich posted a line of .318/.412/.500/.912.

I’d throw in a bunch of more modern stats too, like WARP3 (8.0 for Baylor, 10.4 for Grich), that clearly show Grich was more valuable, but why bother? Those stats didn’t exist in 1979, and no BBWAA voters would have used them anyway. Each player’s RBI total was apparently all they were interested in. Pretty sad.

There were certainly other contenders for the MVP that year, including two guys on the team Baylor’s Angels battled for the AL West. George Brett had a ridiculously good year for the Royals, clearly superior to Baylor’s. In eight fewer games, Brett scored as many runs as Baylor (119 and 120 respectively), and though he hit 13 fewer homers (36 to 23), he had so many additional hits (212 to 186), doubles (42 to 33) and triples (20 to 3), that he easily out-slugged the much burlier Baylor (.563 to .530), while also posting a better batting average (.329 to .296) and on-base percentage (.376 to .371). His adjusted OPS was better (148 to 144), and he absolutely dominated in the stretch run from August 1st through the end of the season (.337/.368/.611/.979). He battered the Angels that season to the tune of .333/.365/.583/.948, and was an outstanding hitter with runners on base (.330/.392/.573/.965) and with runners in scoring position (.343/.424/.618/1.042). Plus, Brett did all of this while playing a really good third base (112 Rate, 17 FRAA). He finished third in the balloting, but if his team had won the division by three games, instead of the other way around, you have to wonder if even the BBWAA could have seen their way to giving him the MVP that he clearly deserved more than Baylor.

If not, maybe they would have awarded Brett’s teammate, Darrell Porter. While playing outstanding defense at catcher that year (111 Rate, 16 FRAA), Porter had the best offensive year of his life. He hit .291/.421/.484/.905, good for an OPS+ of 142. He led the league in walks with 121 and reached base more than any other player in the league, while driving in 112 runs and scoring 101. He was an absolute iron man behind the plate, catching 141 games, while murdering California Angels pitching (.362/.492/.532/1.024). For all that, the writers only put him 9th in the final MVP voting, almost tied with Buddy Bell (52 points or Porter, 48 for Bell). Hmmm, a .905 OPS while playing catcher for a division near-winner, or a .778 OPS while playing third base for the team that finished third. Sounds pretty equal to most voters, I guess.

Forgetting every other position on the field, and forgetting the other players on his own team for a moment, let’s make it clear that Baylor wasn’t even the most valuable outfielder/DH in the league. Any number of outfielders had better seasons for teams that were just as good or better than California.

How about Steve Kemp? He hit .318/.398/.543/.941 for an 85-win Tigers team, and posted almost the same WARP3 score (7.6) as Baylor despite missing 30 games due to injury. He tied for 17th in the MVP voting.

Chet Lemon had a great case, too. All he did was hit .318/.391/.496/.887, good for an OPS+ mark of 139, very close to Baylor’s mark of 144. And he did this while playing a solid center field. Unfortunately, since Lemon played for a bad White Sox team, he didn’t receive a single MVP vote, not even a tenth-place nod.

What about Sixto Lezcano? He hit .321/.414/.573/.987 for a 95-win Milwaukee team and won a Gold Glove to boot. His WARP3 score of 7.9 was also nearly identical to Baylor’s 8.0 mark despite playing only 138 games. He finished 15th in the MVP voting. Lezcano’s teammate, Gorman Thomas, had a better case than Baylor, too. All he did was lead the league in homers while posting an OPS of .895.

And how could we forget Reggie Jackson? His Yankee team won one more game than Baylor’s Angels, and Reggie put up his usual line (.297/.382/.544/.926). His WARP3 score was the same as Kemp’s and he also missed about 30 games due to injury. Despite being perhaps the most famous player in the game at the time, he finished tied for 24th in the MVP voting.

Jim Rice has a much better claim on the 1979 MVP than Baylor also. He was better than Baylor in, well, everything. His team won more games (91 to 88). He scored nearly as many runs (117 to Baylor’s 120) despite playing fewer games. He had more hits (201 to 186), more doubles (39 to 33), more triples (6 to 3), and more home runs (39 to 36). He drove in nearly as many runs (130 to Baylor’s 139) while stealing bases at a better rate (69% to 64%), hitting for a better average (.325 to .296), getting on base more (.381 to .371) and slugging more (.596 to .530). His OPS+ which takes home ballpark factors into account, was also better (154 to 144). He played far more games in the field and posted a better fielding percentage (.984 to .976). His WARP3 score came out a touch better (8.1 to 8.0). His numbers (.336/.387/.645/1.032) during the pennant stretch of August through the end of the season dwarfed Baylor’s (.292/.361/.495/.856), and he hit much better than Baylor with runners on base (.340/.388/.610/.998 to Baylor’s .302/.379/.527/.906). Despite all of this, Rice finished just fifth in the MVP voting, and didn’t receive a single first-place vote.

Part of the reason for Rice’s poor showing was that, despite being considerably better than Don Baylor, he was still not as good as a pair of other outfielders in the American League that season. Ken Singleton got three first place votes and finished as the runner-up to Baylor in the voting, but he clearly had the better season. While slugging at almost exactly the same rate (Singleton - .533; Baylor - .530), Singleton managed to get on base at a significantly better pace (.405 OBP to Baylor’s .371), and did this despite playing in a slightly less friendly ballpark for hitters. His adjusted OPS was 156 to Baylor’s 144, and while he was a poor defender in right field, he did, at least, play the field much more than Baylor did (143 outfield games to 97 for Baylor). Singleton’s WARP3 score of 9.1 pretty much blows the doors off Baylor’s 8.0 mark, and he did all of this for the best team in the league, a Baltimore club that won 14 games more than Baylor’s Angels.

But I guess Singleton’s “measly” 111 RBI just couldn’t stack up to Baylor’s whopping total. I guess it simply didn’t matter that Singleton was hitting behind significantly worse on-base men (Al Bumbry, Mark Belanger, Rich Dauer) than was Baylor (Rod Carew, Dan Ford, Rick Miller, Carney Lansford), and therefore had 25% fewer plate appearances with runners on base (311) than Baylor did (388). If you take Singleton’s RBI total (111) divided by his plate appearances with runners on base (311), you get an RBI rate of .357, which, if you then apply it to the same number of plate appearances with runners on base that Baylor enjoyed (388), gets you a total of 139 RBIs. That, of course, would have given Singleton the identical RBI total the voters saw attributed to Don Baylor at the end of the season. But we wouldn’t want to do our homework before casting our MVP vote, would we? A good BBWAA member never allows himself to be distracted by the facts.

Still, Singleton’s case pales in comparison to the season put up by Fred Lynn. While playing Gold Glove-winning center field, Lynn also hit .333/.423/.637/1.060, good for an OPS+ mark of 176. That .333 average was good enough to win the batting title, and Lynn also led the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, adjusted OPS, and runs created, all while hitting 39 homers and driving in 122 runs for a team that won three games more than the Angels, an important consideration in a league with a completely balanced schedule. It was, in short, a virtuoso season, one that saw him rack up a WARP3 score of 10.9 and 34 Win Shares, the best total in the league. (Baylor, for comparison, had 29.)

Alas, Lynn’s team didn’t win a division title, and though his batting title was sexy, he was just fourth in RBI. The voters downgraded him accordingly, and he finished with just the 4th-best total in the MVP balloting. That would have been okay if the award had gone to someone truly deserving, like Brett or Porter or Grich or Singleton, but it didn’t. It went to Don friggin’ Baylor, who leveraged the one season of his career in which he drove in 100 or more runs, his one All-Star season, into an MVP award he utterly didn’t deserve.

Way to go, BBWAA! I honor your rich tradition of screwing up baseball’s biggest awards.