“Injustice - An act that inflicts undeserved hurt. Any act that involves unfairness to another or violation of one's rights”.
The full definition of injustice mentions rights, and laws, and issues far more weighty than baseball, and rightly so. It’s a heavy word, not one to be wantonly thrown around in a world where it can be applied far too frequently. If you can find a synonym for “injustice lite”, I’m all ears.
Lacking that, there really isn’t any other word that applies to how Alan Trammell has been treated by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Unless, of course, you go vulgar and say he’s been screwed. That works for me.
What makes Trammell’s case particularly troubling is that the BBWAA has inflicted a double whammy on him. He is currently eligible for election into the Hall of Fame, but has burned through six years of eligibility without cracking 100 votes in any election, or collecting even 20% of the votes cast. For a variety of generally unknown but surely moronic reasons, the BBWAA doesn’t seem to think that Alan Trammell belongs in the Hall of Fame. One of those, sadly and ironically, involves the double whammy I mentioned. Specifically, Trammell’s lack of an MVP award on his resume is seen as a negative, despite the fact that he very much deserved one and it was yet another BBWAA foul-up that denied it to him.
Let’s deal with the MVP issue first. Here are the top-10 vote-getters for the 1987 American League MVP, along with their WARP3 Scores for that season and their team’s win total:
George Bell - 9.2; 96
Alan Trammell - 13.2; 98
Kirby Puckett - 7.6; 85
Dwight Evans - 7.8; 78
Paul Molitor - 8.3; 91
Mark McGwire - 9.0; 81
Don Mattingly - 9.1; 89
Tony Fernandez - 10.1; 98
Wade Boggs - 13.1; 78
Gary Gaetti - 5.0; 85
What’s that old Sesame Street song? “One of these things is not like the others, one of these things does not belong…” You can say that again, Big Bird.
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon, or someone who cares all that much about the so-called “modern” baseball statistics that have become popular, to recognize that Alan Trammell was the best player in the American League in 1987. Forget WARP for a minute and note simply that Bell and Trammell had nearly identical OPS marks (.957 for Bell, .953 for Trammell), meaning they had essentially the same value as hitters even before you consider Trammell’s obvious plusses, like the fact that he posted his offensive numbers in a Tiger Stadium that suppressed scoring by 4% that year while Bell played in an Exhibition Stadium that increased scoring by 2%, meaning that their respective OPS+ marks clearly favor Trammell (155 to 146). Using the most basic formula around for Runs Created, Trammell scores higher than Bell, 133 to 129. What this means is that a team comprised of all Alan Trammell’s could expect to score 8.7 runs per game in 1987, while a team of all George Bell’s would score 7.8, nearly a full run less. And then there’s the little fact that Trammell was, you know, a shortstop, and a pretty good one (106 Rate, 8 FRAA) while George Bell was just an average left fielder (101 Rate, 1 FRAA).
Or how about the fact that Trammell was infinitely better than Bell in September and October as their two teams battled each other to the last day of the season for the division title? Bell was no slouch in those final weeks of the season (.308/.379/.530/.909), but those marks were distinctly lower than his performance for the rest of the year, and they paled in comparison to Trammell (.417/.490/.677/1.167). Read that last stat line again. Alan Trammell, a shortstop, batted .417 and slugged .677 from September 1st through the end of the season in 1987. That stretch included seven games head-to-head against Bell’s Blue Jays, games in which Trammell also hit .417, while slugging .667. Not surprisingly, the Tigers won four of those seven games, including 3-game sweep on the season’s final weekend, to win the division by two games. For the year, Trammell hit .340/ .446/ .723/ 1.169 against Toronto, while Bell hit just .294/ .379/ .431/ .810 against Detroit. Every single so-called “clutch” stat went on favor of Trammell:
2 outs, runners in scoring position: Trammell - .937 OPS; Bell - .832 OPS
Late & Close situations: Trammell – 1.087 OPS; Bell - .951 OPS
Game Tied: Trammell – 1.012 OPS; Bell - .894 OPS
I’ll stop there before I get into severe overkill range. By now it should be obvious to anyone who follows baseball that Alan Trammell out-classed George Bell by a long, long way in 1987. The only player in the league who came close to Trammell’s performance was Wade Boggs, and he played for a team with a losing record, one that finished 20 games behind Trammell’s Tigers.
And yet, thought the voting was close, Trammell was denied the MVP. Only a voting body as screwed up as the BBWAA could fail to give the MVP to the league’s best player when he also happened to play on the league’s best team.
Okay, that’s bad. It’s unfair, or unjust, if you will. Trammell deserved better, and most people who study the game will gladly tell you so. But the BBWAA didn’t stop there. No, they decided to compound their mistake by holding it against Trammell now that he’s eligible for the Hall of Fame. Think for a second; how many players have won the MVP as a shortstop? Damn few. In fact, here’s the entire list:
2003 - Alex Rodriguez
2002 - Miguel Tejada
1995 - Barry Larkin
1991 - Cal Ripken (HOF)
1983 - Cal Ripken (HOF)
1982 - Robin Yount (HOF)
1965 - Zoilo Versalles
1962 - Maury Wills
1960 - Dick Groat
1959 - Ernie Banks (HOF)
1958 - Ernie Banks (HOF)
1950 - Phil Rizzuto (HOF)
1948 - Lou Boudreau (HOF)
1944 - Marty Marion
1925 - Roger Peckinpaugh
That’s it. Just fifteen awards to thirteen players in the history of the award. Of those thirteen, five are already in the Hall of Fame, one certainly will be (ARod), two others will have great cases once they’re eligible (Tejada and Larkin), and two have been proposed as serious candidates for decades (Wills and Marion). Only three shortstops have won an MVP and really don’t have any case for being in Cooperstown, and those three, frankly, either had the fluke year to end all fluke years (Versalles), or just plain didn’t deserve their awards (Groat, who didn’t even have the best WARP3 score on the Pirates, and Peckinpaugh, whose 4.1 WARP3 score was 11th on the 1925 Washington Senators. You may want to read that again.)
In short, a shortstop who wins the MVP has a 50/50 or better chance of being elected to the Hall of Fame, and an even greater chance, something like 80% of receiving considerable support for election. Consider Marty Marion next to Trammell, for instance:
Games – Trammell, 2293; Marion, 1572
At-Bats – Trammell, 8288; Marion, 5506
Runs – Trammell, 1273; Marion, 602
Hits – Trammell, 2365; Marion, 1448
Doubles – Trammell, 412; Marion, 272
Triples – Trammell, 55; Marion, 37
Home Runs – Trammell, 185; Marion, 36
RBI – Trammell, 1003; Marion, 624
Steals – Trammell, 236; Marion, 35
Walks – Trammell, 850; Marion, 470
Batting Average – Trammell, .285; Marion, .263
On-Base Percentage – Trammell, .352; Marion, .323
Slugging Percentage – Trammell, .415; Marion, .345
OPS+ - Trammell, 110; Marion, 81
While it’s fair to note that Marion was an outstanding defender, much better than Trammell, who was good himself, the gap in their offensive abilities and longevity is just too enormous. (And no, Marion doesn’t get any missing wars years as credit. He played throughout all of the WWII years, with his MVP coming in one of them, 1944.) Trammell obviously had the better career. And yet…
Highest HOF Percentage – Marion, 40%; Trammell, 18%
All together now…huh? Are you beginning to sense my frustration? Just wait, I’m not done yet. Check out Trammell against Maury Wills:
Games – Trammell, 2293; Wills, 1942
At-Bats – Trammell, 8288; Wills, 7588
Runs – Trammell, 1273; Wills, 1067
Hits – Trammell, 2365; Wills, 2134
Doubles – Trammell, 412; Wills, 177
Triples – Trammell, 55; Wills, 71
Home Runs – Trammell, 185; Wills, 20
RBI – Trammell, 1003; Wills, 458
Steals – Trammell, 236; Wills, 586
Walks – Trammell, 850; Wills, 552
Batting Average – Trammell, .285; Wills, .281
On-Base Percentage – Trammell, .352; Wills, .330
Slugging Percentage – Trammell, .415; Wills, .331
OPS+ - Trammell, 110; Wills, 88
A few differences, like the fact that Wills was a much better baserunner/stolen base guru than either Trammell or Marion. Plus Wills played in Dodger Stadium in the 1960s, one of the more inhospitable places for a hitter in all of baseball. Still, he had no power, didn’t draw walks, didn’t play terribly long and was a really mediocre defensive shortstop most years (101 Rate, 15 FRAA). So, once the differences are taken as a whole, it’s still really clear that Trammell had the better career. Clear to everyone but the BBWAA that is…
Highest HOF Percentage – Wills, 41%; Trammell, 18%
I’m beginning to see a pattern. Apparently that MVP award carried a lot more weight than it should, to the point of providing significant boosts to the Hall of Fame vote totals of most of the shortstops who received one. Hell, the BBWAA went so far as to list both Marion (68.8 career WARP3) and Wills (81.6) on the Veterans’ Committee ballot, apparently under the delusion that each is one of the top-25 veteran players not currently in the Hall of Fame. They were deemed more worthy than Bill Dahlen (135.1) and Jack Glasscock (107.2) and Stan Hack (104.1) and Dick Bartell (103.7) and Rusty Staub (101.9) and Bert Campaneris (98.6) and Bob Johnson (98.1) and Lave Cross (97.9) and Bob Elliott (97.1) and Billy Pierce (93.7) and Jimmy Wynn (92.7) and Jimmy Ryan (92.1) and Heinie Groh (91.8) and Ken Singleton (90.2) and Norm Cash (89.7) and Reggie Smith (89.5) and Willie Davis (89.3) and Sherry Magee (87.1) and Jake Daubert (81.6) and Buddy Myer (81.6) and Sal Bando (81.1). I’m sure there are others I’m missing, but hey, why should I knock myself out researching guys who the BBWAA has clearly forgotten?
While guys like Marion and Wills apparently enjoy vastly better reputations than they deserve, Trammell is getting little HOF support despite the fact that he more than measures up to the Hall’s and BBWAA’s standards for shortstops. This isn’t some borderline case of a guy who might be a touch better than the two or three worst guys in the Hall of Fame. Trammell could actually raise the standard in some regards. At worst, he’s an average Hall of Fame shortstop. Once all of the numbers are neutralized to account for different run-scoring eras and home ballparks, here are the average career offensive numbers for a Hall of Fame shortstop, along with Alan Trammell’s:
Games – HOF, 2338; Trammell, 2385
At-Bats – HOF, 8809; Trammell, 8769
Runs – HOF, 1349; Trammell, 1395
Hits – HOF, 2543; Trammell, 2595
Doubles – HOF, 428; Trammell, 453
Triples – HOF, 116; Trammell, 57
Home Runs – HOF, 120; Trammell, 199
RBI – HOF, 1160; Trammell, 1130
Walks – HOF, 891; Trammell, 939
Steals – HOF, 291; Trammell, 255
Batting Average – HOF, .289; Trammell, .296
On-Base Percentage – HOF, .358; Trammell, .364
Slugging Percentage – HOF, .403; Trammell, .429
Don’t look now, but it would appear that Alan Trammell’s career would be a very fine fit among Hall of Fame shortstops. Not that the BBWAA cares. To them, he’s apparently missing that one extra thing, the thing that would make him stand out.
That thing they screwed him out of in 1987.
Lacking that, there really isn’t any other word that applies to how Alan Trammell has been treated by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Unless, of course, you go vulgar and say he’s been screwed. That works for me.What makes Trammell’s case particularly troubling is that the BBWAA has inflicted a double whammy on him. He is currently eligible for election into the Hall of Fame, but has burned through six years of eligibility without cracking 100 votes in any election, or collecting even 20% of the votes cast. For a variety of generally unknown but surely moronic reasons, the BBWAA doesn’t seem to think that Alan Trammell belongs in the Hall of Fame. One of those, sadly and ironically, involves the double whammy I mentioned. Specifically, Trammell’s lack of an MVP award on his resume is seen as a negative, despite the fact that he very much deserved one and it was yet another BBWAA foul-up that denied it to him.
Let’s deal with the MVP issue first. Here are the top-10 vote-getters for the 1987 American League MVP, along with their WARP3 Scores for that season and their team’s win total:
George Bell - 9.2; 96
Alan Trammell - 13.2; 98
Kirby Puckett - 7.6; 85
Dwight Evans - 7.8; 78
Paul Molitor - 8.3; 91
Mark McGwire - 9.0; 81
Don Mattingly - 9.1; 89
Tony Fernandez - 10.1; 98
Wade Boggs - 13.1; 78
Gary Gaetti - 5.0; 85
What’s that old Sesame Street song? “One of these things is not like the others, one of these things does not belong…” You can say that again, Big Bird.
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon, or someone who cares all that much about the so-called “modern” baseball statistics that have become popular, to recognize that Alan Trammell was the best player in the American League in 1987. Forget WARP for a minute and note simply that Bell and Trammell had nearly identical OPS marks (.957 for Bell, .953 for Trammell), meaning they had essentially the same value as hitters even before you consider Trammell’s obvious plusses, like the fact that he posted his offensive numbers in a Tiger Stadium that suppressed scoring by 4% that year while Bell played in an Exhibition Stadium that increased scoring by 2%, meaning that their respective OPS+ marks clearly favor Trammell (155 to 146). Using the most basic formula around for Runs Created, Trammell scores higher than Bell, 133 to 129. What this means is that a team comprised of all Alan Trammell’s could expect to score 8.7 runs per game in 1987, while a team of all George Bell’s would score 7.8, nearly a full run less. And then there’s the little fact that Trammell was, you know, a shortstop, and a pretty good one (106 Rate, 8 FRAA) while George Bell was just an average left fielder (101 Rate, 1 FRAA).
Or how about the fact that Trammell was infinitely better than Bell in September and October as their two teams battled each other to the last day of the season for the division title? Bell was no slouch in those final weeks of the season (.308/.379/.530/.909), but those marks were distinctly lower than his performance for the rest of the year, and they paled in comparison to Trammell (.417/.490/.677/1.167). Read that last stat line again. Alan Trammell, a shortstop, batted .417 and slugged .677 from September 1st through the end of the season in 1987. That stretch included seven games head-to-head against Bell’s Blue Jays, games in which Trammell also hit .417, while slugging .667. Not surprisingly, the Tigers won four of those seven games, including 3-game sweep on the season’s final weekend, to win the division by two games. For the year, Trammell hit .340/ .446/ .723/ 1.169 against Toronto, while Bell hit just .294/ .379/ .431/ .810 against Detroit. Every single so-called “clutch” stat went on favor of Trammell:
2 outs, runners in scoring position: Trammell - .937 OPS; Bell - .832 OPS
Late & Close situations: Trammell – 1.087 OPS; Bell - .951 OPS
Game Tied: Trammell – 1.012 OPS; Bell - .894 OPS
I’ll stop there before I get into severe overkill range. By now it should be obvious to anyone who follows baseball that Alan Trammell out-classed George Bell by a long, long way in 1987. The only player in the league who came close to Trammell’s performance was Wade Boggs, and he played for a team with a losing record, one that finished 20 games behind Trammell’s Tigers.
And yet, thought the voting was close, Trammell was denied the MVP. Only a voting body as screwed up as the BBWAA could fail to give the MVP to the league’s best player when he also happened to play on the league’s best team.
Okay, that’s bad. It’s unfair, or unjust, if you will. Trammell deserved better, and most people who study the game will gladly tell you so. But the BBWAA didn’t stop there. No, they decided to compound their mistake by holding it against Trammell now that he’s eligible for the Hall of Fame. Think for a second; how many players have won the MVP as a shortstop? Damn few. In fact, here’s the entire list:
2003 - Alex Rodriguez
2002 - Miguel Tejada
1995 - Barry Larkin
1991 - Cal Ripken (HOF)
1983 - Cal Ripken (HOF)
1982 - Robin Yount (HOF)
1965 - Zoilo Versalles
1962 - Maury Wills
1960 - Dick Groat
1959 - Ernie Banks (HOF)
1958 - Ernie Banks (HOF)
1950 - Phil Rizzuto (HOF)
1948 - Lou Boudreau (HOF)
1944 - Marty Marion
1925 - Roger Peckinpaugh
That’s it. Just fifteen awards to thirteen players in the history of the award. Of those thirteen, five are already in the Hall of Fame, one certainly will be (ARod), two others will have great cases once they’re eligible (Tejada and Larkin), and two have been proposed as serious candidates for decades (Wills and Marion). Only three shortstops have won an MVP and really don’t have any case for being in Cooperstown, and those three, frankly, either had the fluke year to end all fluke years (Versalles), or just plain didn’t deserve their awards (Groat, who didn’t even have the best WARP3 score on the Pirates, and Peckinpaugh, whose 4.1 WARP3 score was 11th on the 1925 Washington Senators. You may want to read that again.)
In short, a shortstop who wins the MVP has a 50/50 or better chance of being elected to the Hall of Fame, and an even greater chance, something like 80% of receiving considerable support for election. Consider Marty Marion next to Trammell, for instance:
Games – Trammell, 2293; Marion, 1572
At-Bats – Trammell, 8288; Marion, 5506
Runs – Trammell, 1273; Marion, 602
Hits – Trammell, 2365; Marion, 1448
Doubles – Trammell, 412; Marion, 272
Triples – Trammell, 55; Marion, 37
Home Runs – Trammell, 185; Marion, 36
RBI – Trammell, 1003; Marion, 624
Steals – Trammell, 236; Marion, 35
Walks – Trammell, 850; Marion, 470
Batting Average – Trammell, .285; Marion, .263
On-Base Percentage – Trammell, .352; Marion, .323
Slugging Percentage – Trammell, .415; Marion, .345
OPS+ - Trammell, 110; Marion, 81
While it’s fair to note that Marion was an outstanding defender, much better than Trammell, who was good himself, the gap in their offensive abilities and longevity is just too enormous. (And no, Marion doesn’t get any missing wars years as credit. He played throughout all of the WWII years, with his MVP coming in one of them, 1944.) Trammell obviously had the better career. And yet…
Highest HOF Percentage – Marion, 40%; Trammell, 18%
All together now…huh? Are you beginning to sense my frustration? Just wait, I’m not done yet. Check out Trammell against Maury Wills:
Games – Trammell, 2293; Wills, 1942
At-Bats – Trammell, 8288; Wills, 7588
Runs – Trammell, 1273; Wills, 1067
Hits – Trammell, 2365; Wills, 2134
Doubles – Trammell, 412; Wills, 177
Triples – Trammell, 55; Wills, 71
Home Runs – Trammell, 185; Wills, 20
RBI – Trammell, 1003; Wills, 458
Steals – Trammell, 236; Wills, 586
Walks – Trammell, 850; Wills, 552
Batting Average – Trammell, .285; Wills, .281
On-Base Percentage – Trammell, .352; Wills, .330
Slugging Percentage – Trammell, .415; Wills, .331
OPS+ - Trammell, 110; Wills, 88
A few differences, like the fact that Wills was a much better baserunner/stolen base guru than either Trammell or Marion. Plus Wills played in Dodger Stadium in the 1960s, one of the more inhospitable places for a hitter in all of baseball. Still, he had no power, didn’t draw walks, didn’t play terribly long and was a really mediocre defensive shortstop most years (101 Rate, 15 FRAA). So, once the differences are taken as a whole, it’s still really clear that Trammell had the better career. Clear to everyone but the BBWAA that is…Highest HOF Percentage – Wills, 41%; Trammell, 18%
I’m beginning to see a pattern. Apparently that MVP award carried a lot more weight than it should, to the point of providing significant boosts to the Hall of Fame vote totals of most of the shortstops who received one. Hell, the BBWAA went so far as to list both Marion (68.8 career WARP3) and Wills (81.6) on the Veterans’ Committee ballot, apparently under the delusion that each is one of the top-25 veteran players not currently in the Hall of Fame. They were deemed more worthy than Bill Dahlen (135.1) and Jack Glasscock (107.2) and Stan Hack (104.1) and Dick Bartell (103.7) and Rusty Staub (101.9) and Bert Campaneris (98.6) and Bob Johnson (98.1) and Lave Cross (97.9) and Bob Elliott (97.1) and Billy Pierce (93.7) and Jimmy Wynn (92.7) and Jimmy Ryan (92.1) and Heinie Groh (91.8) and Ken Singleton (90.2) and Norm Cash (89.7) and Reggie Smith (89.5) and Willie Davis (89.3) and Sherry Magee (87.1) and Jake Daubert (81.6) and Buddy Myer (81.6) and Sal Bando (81.1). I’m sure there are others I’m missing, but hey, why should I knock myself out researching guys who the BBWAA has clearly forgotten?
While guys like Marion and Wills apparently enjoy vastly better reputations than they deserve, Trammell is getting little HOF support despite the fact that he more than measures up to the Hall’s and BBWAA’s standards for shortstops. This isn’t some borderline case of a guy who might be a touch better than the two or three worst guys in the Hall of Fame. Trammell could actually raise the standard in some regards. At worst, he’s an average Hall of Fame shortstop. Once all of the numbers are neutralized to account for different run-scoring eras and home ballparks, here are the average career offensive numbers for a Hall of Fame shortstop, along with Alan Trammell’s:
Games – HOF, 2338; Trammell, 2385
At-Bats – HOF, 8809; Trammell, 8769
Runs – HOF, 1349; Trammell, 1395
Hits – HOF, 2543; Trammell, 2595
Doubles – HOF, 428; Trammell, 453
Triples – HOF, 116; Trammell, 57
Home Runs – HOF, 120; Trammell, 199
RBI – HOF, 1160; Trammell, 1130
Walks – HOF, 891; Trammell, 939
Steals – HOF, 291; Trammell, 255
Batting Average – HOF, .289; Trammell, .296
On-Base Percentage – HOF, .358; Trammell, .364
Slugging Percentage – HOF, .403; Trammell, .429
Don’t look now, but it would appear that Alan Trammell’s career would be a very fine fit among Hall of Fame shortstops. Not that the BBWAA cares. To them, he’s apparently missing that one extra thing, the thing that would make him stand out.
That thing they screwed him out of in 1987.
1 comment:
Thanks Paul,
I have been upset (read pissed) about Tramm's dis by the BBWAA since the first vote. I wonder if he would still be ignored if he had played for the Yankees (like the light hitting Rizutto), or if he turned a somersault at the beginning of each season (like an anemic hitting Ozzie Smith)? I am frustrated , like you, at the complete lack of research done by the baseball writers. They only seem to care about the hottest hitter/pitcher of the current season. They should not have such an absolute control over the HOF elections. IE Robbie Alomar probably won't get in because of the "spitting incident". That was stupid and unfortunate... but should one mistake keep him out?
It is nice to hear that Tram has people on his side (even outside of Michigan). In my 20 odd years of watching MLB I have seen only one shortstop that hold a candle to Tram and he plays 3B for the Yankees now. Tram deserves better. I don't put much stock into the BBWAA now and haven't in the past (nost of them dumbasses just don't do their homework.... BTW Lou Whitaker should be in, too!!
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